Roses, roses . . .

Mr. Bush proclaims, in the face of massive evidence, that we are on the right track in Iraq. In the simplest terms, that things are going well. Against most of the evidence he says this. In the shadow of recent disclosure of a national intelligence estimate he says this. In the shadow of an increasing rate of American wounded in action and, God knows, and increasing number of Iraqi deaths as a result of insurgency he maintains this positive demeanor.

In the face of reality check by serious men like Chuck Hagel and Richard Lugar, Bush continues to peddle optimism.

The national intelligence estimate, from the British Independent:

Bush failed to plan for after war, report says

By Rupert Cornwell in Washington
17 September 2004

A deeply pessimistic US intelligence assessment of the situation in Iraq, warning of possible civil war, has cast further doubts over the Bush administration's attempt to rebuild the country, and gave the Democratic challenger John Kerry a new opportunity to move the Iraq crisis to the centre of the Presidential election battle.

. . ..

It sketches out three scenarios for Iraq. The grimmest is a descent into civil war; the second is understood to be a continuation of the current disorder. Even the most favourable of the three holds out no better prospect than a precarious stability, under constant threat.

The conclusions of the NIE, first reported by The New York Times yesterday, contrast sharply with the doggedly upbeat tone of Mr Bush on the campaign trail. At every turn, the President insists Iraq is firmly on the road to peace and democracy, deriding Mr Kerry for vacillation and "flip-flopping" on the issue.

Such intelligence studies have a chequered history - not least the previous NIE on Iraq in October 2002, when it grossly exaggerated the weapons threat posed by Saddam Hussein. But this new assessment reflects the view of most nonpartisan Iraq specialists here, that the insurgency is becoming ever more sophisticated and more dangerous. The view is widespread that the war in Iraq is politically, if not militarily, close to unwinnable for the US.

"Is there a threat of civil war? - Yes," Sean McCormick, the National Security Council spokesman admitted to reporters yesterday. But, he argued, many of the worst scenarios previously predicted for Iraq, including famine and civil war, had not come to pass.

. . .

Even Republicans on Capitol Hill are enraged at how less than $1bn of the promised $18bn has been spent. Richard Lugar, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, described the delays as "exasperating". Nebraska's Republican senator, Chuck Hagel, was even blunter. "It's beyond pitiful, it's beyond embarrassing, it is now in the zone of dangerous," he said.

“Pitiful”, “Beyond embarrassing”.

What’s going on here”?

I can only conclude, and I do this as much for the record and a reality check on my own sanity, that Bush continues with more of the Rovian big lie, because he has no choice. He has staked his Presidency and his chances for re-election on continuing to attempt to pull the wool over our eyes. It is pathetic that an American president would feel he has no choice, in the face of massive evidence to the contrary, than to lie and continue to lie.

Politics obviously trumps reality in Mr.Bush’s case, regardless of how liberal a definition one is willing to assign to either.

Mr. Bush will lie to the faithful, to the opposition, and perhaps most importantly that portion of the undecided middle who are susceptible to comforting message that things will be well. Only thus can Bush have a chance at re-election. He will lie up until the last polls close November 2 and then, heaven help us all. What is it about the sowing the wind? Whoever wins election, the reality behind the Bush lies will evaporate, more slowly or quickly, but inexorably so.

No comfort for those of us who have seen through the deception all along, much less the misery of all who have suffered directly from a morass without plan or truth.