Pre-positioning the "pause"

The so-called pause of the Iraq troop drawdown is a trap being laid by repubs. What I see as happening is roughly this:

1. there is a "pause" in the "surge" next Summer.

2. Dems win the WH.

3. Troop withdrawals are resumed, even at minimal rates.

4. "Violence" increases, or the concensus reportage of violence hypes a trend. (Part of Wurlitzer "anti-liberal" barrage.) Petraeus, and other compliant generals "retire" in faux outrage, hit the lecture circuit, take teaching posts, populate military-related boards.

5. Dems "lose Iraq". Presto. Vietnam redux. Bush hagiographers work overtime.

Gates sets the stage for "suspending the drawdown" next Summer.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/chronicle/5530310.html

Ambassador Ryan Crocker seals the deal, setting up the dem nominees by stating the aparent obvious, i.e., that widdrawals (after the pre-positioned pause, almost 6 months from now) must depend on "the "situation on the ground". Lets ignore for a moment that it5 would seem to be that the "pause" itself should be conditioned by the facts on the ground at the moment, not projected a half year away, if one were being consistent, especially from the a diehard give-no-quarter chickenhawks in this white house:

http://newsfeedresearcher.com/blogs/iraq.html#GateseyespauseinUS

This whole scenario is based on accepting assumptions about the state of Iraq, and that the administration has an accurate understanding of conditions. Few are willing to buy that line after years of turning corners that have turn out to be new corridors.